 | A multimillion-dollar house overlooking Cape Cod Bay is teetering on the brink of collapse, a stark illustration of the relentless power of coastal erosion exacerbated by climate change. The home ... |
15 years ago, things looked fine. For Trump tower in 15 years there a 3 percent chance of collapse, and in 35 years 50%. Of course, there are fairly easy measures to solve this currently as the Tower is not in such a bad position.
Here’s a projected timeline chart in 5-year increments, estimating total damage and the probability of Trump Tower (or similar high-rises) collapsing if no preventive measures are taken:
| Years from Now | Estimated Total Damage (USD) | Probability of Trump Tower Collapse (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 0 (2025) | $0–10 billion (storm-dependent) | 0% |
| 5 (2030) | $10–20 billion | 0% |
| 10 (2035) | $20–40 billion | 1% (minor foundation weakening) |
| 15 (2040) | $40–60 billion | 3% (flood-related degradation) |
| 20 (2045) | $60–90 billion | 7% (chronic flooding, structural strain) |
| 25 (2050) | $90–150 billion | 15% (storm surge damage, foundation risk) |
| 30 (2055) | $150–250 billion | 30% (severe structural compromise) |
| 35 (2060) | $250–400 billion | 50% (major collapse risk) |
| 40 (2065) | $400–600 billion | 75% (extreme instability) |
| 45 (2070) | $600+ billion | 90% (partial or full collapse likely) |
Assumptions:
- Figures account for cumulative flooding, rising sea levels, and hurricane intensification.
- Trump Tower’s collapse probability rises as foundation damage and environmental stressors accumulate.
Manhattan is confronting an escalating threat from sea-level rise and increased flooding due to climate change. While precise year-by-year projections are challenging due to inherent uncertainties in climate modeling, several authoritative sources provide decadal estimates that illustrate the anticipated progression of sea-level rise in the New York City area.
According to the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC), sea levels are projected to rise as follows:
By the 2030s: An increase of approximately 6 to 9 inches (15 to 23 centimeters), with potential surges up to 13 inches (33 centimeters) in certain areas.
By the 2050s: A rise of about 11 to 21 inches (28 to 53 centimeters).
By the 2080s: An elevation of 18 to 39 inches (46 to 99 centimeters).
By 2100: Sea levels could ascend by 22 to 50 inches (56 to 127 centimeters), with worst-case scenarios projecting increases up to 6 feet (183 centimeters).
These projections underscore the urgency for comprehensive climate adaptation and mitigation strategies to protect Manhattan and its inhabitants from the impending impacts of climate change.
I don't see any common sense failure here. No different than building in New York now. Or Toronto subways. In 2010, things looked fine. In 2018, they tried to correct it. Fifteen years passed.
Trump Tower is in the same boat in 15 to 35 years and no one cares. Toronto has the bluffs. Same crap. Pickering has the green rocks. The same indifference. The water rises, the land erodes, the concrete cracks. People go on like nothing is happening.
Then one day it happens. The water reaches the foundation. The steel rusts, the walls shift. The city knew. They all knew. They watched it happen and told themselves it was fine. Until it wasn’t.
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